Reading prices

A share price can be read in two ways:

• The cost of one share.
• The market’s implied probability for that outcome.

A YES share priced at 58 cents costs €0.58 and suggests an implied probability of roughly 58%. If it is correct at resolution, it pays €1. If it is incorrect, it pays €0.

Price is a signal, not a fact

The price comes from traders’ offers and completed trades. It may respond quickly to new information, but it can still be inaccurate.

A price of 58 cents does not mean:

• The event is certain to happen.
• Juhus has judged the probability to be 58%.
• You are guaranteed to buy every share at that price.

Treat the price as one piece of information. Read the market rules and make your own assessment before trading.

How YES and NO relate

YES and NO are complementary outcomes. An implied probability of 58% for YES leaves 42% for NO.

The available YES and NO prices shown on screen may not always look like a neat 58 and 42 pair. Traders can place offers that have not yet matched, so the prices currently available to buy or sell may have a gap between them.

Why the final price can be different

Imagine that you want to buy 10 YES shares in the Tallinn weather market. The first few shares may be available at 58 cents, while the next shares are available at 59 or 60 cents.

If your order uses several offers, your shares can fill at several prices. The trade preview shows the expected average price and total before you confirm. The final result depends on the offers still available when the order executes.

The amount available near the current price is called liquidity. More liquidity usually makes it easier to trade a larger amount without moving to a less favourable price. With little liquidity, Juhus may ask you to reduce a market order or use a limit order instead.

Buy price, sell price, and spread

At any moment, traders may be willing to buy at one price and sell at another:

• The best available buy offer is the highest price someone is currently willing to pay.
• The best available sell offer is the lowest price someone is currently willing to accept.
• The difference between those two prices is the spread.

A small spread often appears when many traders are placing offers close together. A large spread often means fewer active offers or a greater difference between the prices buyers and sellers will accept. The spread is not proof that an outcome is especially certain or uncertain.

Why prices move

Prices can change when:

• New information becomes available.
• Traders reassess the likelihood of the event.
• Large orders use several available prices.
• Traders add, change, or cancel their offers.

A recent traded price tells you where a trade took place. An available price tells you what someone is currently offering. Neither tells you why a trader chose that price.

Next, see Profit, loss, and payouts to understand how the price you pay affects your possible result.