Profit, loss, and payouts

Your result depends on three things:

1. The price you paid for the shares.
2. Whether you sell them before resolution and at what price.
3. Which outcome is correct when the market resolves.

Fees can also affect the final result. Juhus charges a trading fee when your order accepts an offer that is already available. If your order rests and another trader later accepts it, that resting fill does not pay the trading fee.

One limit order can do both. It may accept some available shares immediately, then leave the rest waiting. In that case, the immediately completed part can have a fee and the later resting part does not. The trade preview shows an estimate before you confirm. Your completed trade details show the amounts that were actually charged.

Holding shares until resolution

Suppose you buy 10 YES shares at 58 cents each in the market Will Tallinn reach 25°C on 1 August?

Your purchase cost before any applicable fee is:

10 shares × €0.58 = €5.80

Each correct share pays €1. Each incorrect share pays €0.

If a fee applies, add the actual fee from your completed trade details to the purchase cost when calculating your loss or subtract it from the profit.

Selling before resolution

You can lock in a gain or reduce a loss by selling before resolution, provided there is enough liquidity.

If you sell the 10 YES shares at 70 cents:

Sale proceeds before any applicable fee: 10 × €0.70 = €7.00

Trading result before fees: €7.00 − €5.80 = €1.20 profit

If you instead sell them at 45 cents:

Sale proceeds before any applicable fee: 10 × €0.45 = €4.50

Trading result before fees: €4.50 − €5.80 = €1.30 loss

Fees on the purchase or sale reduce the final result.

Average price matters

A larger order may fill at several prices. If some shares fill at 58 cents and others at 60 cents, use the average purchase price shown in your trade details rather than only the first price you saw.

The same applies when selling. Your actual proceeds depend on the number of shares sold at each price, minus any applicable fee.

Open profit and loss can change

While you still own shares, the market may estimate what the position is currently worth. This creates an unrealised profit or loss, meaning the value has changed on screen but you have not sold or reached resolution.

That estimate can change as prices move. With limited liquidity, you may not be able to sell every share at the displayed price. A profit or loss becomes realised when you sell shares or the market resolves.

Your maximum loss

Juhus does not offer leverage or margin. For a completed purchase, the most you can lose on the market outcome is the amount you paid for the shares, plus any applicable fee.

Choose an amount you can afford to lose. A high implied probability is not a guarantee that the share will pay out.

See Buying and selling for how to reduce or close a position before resolution.